RISK: Global Domination

About RISK: Global Domination

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

What is RISK: Global Domination?

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to send a provisional measure to Congress this week to tighten the regulations for betting in Brazil.

According to CNN Brazil, the government is considering expanding restrictions on betting advertising and banning online casino games. The idea would be to maintain only sports betting.

The decision to use a provisional measure means the restrictions can take effect immediately, less than a month before the elections. This is the clearest indication yet that the sector is being used for electoral purposes to try and secure Lula’s re-election.

About RISK: Global Domination

“They’re different costumes on gambling,” he said. “Some have high heels and a tiara and others have on miniskirts or a bikini.”

Asked by Hall on how Texas should proceed moving forward, York advised that the state should seek an order that would require prediction markets to geofence their platforms from operating statewide. York also prefers the pursuit of litigation against prediction markets in state court, rather than the federal circuit, where state attorney generals have been less successful.

“Prediction markets think they can mess with Texas,” York said. “I hope you prove them wrong.”