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How to play Aloha
Their biggest success was Savan Vegas, strategically located near the Friendship Bridge linking Laos with neighboring Thailand across the Mekong River. A planned second resort, Paksong Vegas, was never built.
Within several years, however, the partnership had soured.
In 2012, Sanum and Lao Holdings, an Aruba-based company created to hold the investors’ interests in Sanum, accused Laos of trying to force them out of the country after Savan Vegas had become successful.
What is Aloha?
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
About Aloha
A bevy of participating athletes took to social media this week to share their thoughts on the campaign. An X post from Leguizamo, a longtime comedian, encapsulated the fast-paced nature of prediction markets.
“It’s live trading, you gotta stay on your toes,” he wrote, repeating his line from the commercial.
Meanwhile, on a post that received 1.2 million views, Manning joked: “Might have to put the pads back on.” It prompted Sherman to retort, “now let’s try this on the field”, in reference to the prediction market app.
